"What is my catalog worth?" is the first question every rightsholder asks. The honest answer is that there is no fixed price per song or per stream. Buyers value a catalog on the income it is expected to generate in the future and on how confident they are about that income. Here is how they get to a number.
Step 1: Work out the real income (NPS or NLS)
Buyers start from net income, not gross revenue. For publishing this is often called Net Publisher Share (NPS), and for masters Net Label Share (NLS): what the owner actually keeps after paying writers, artists, producers, administrators and distributors.
They then normalize it. A one-off sync fee, a viral spike or a back-payment from a collecting society is removed or averaged out, because it will not repeat every year. Most buyers look at the last three years, and often at the trailing twelve months, to see the trend.
Step 2: Apply a multiple
The simplest method is a multiple of normalized annual net income. If a catalog reliably earns 100,000 a year and the buyer applies a 10x multiple, the headline price is around 1,000,000.
Multiples vary a lot. Market commentary from 2025 and 2026 gives a broad picture:
- Newer catalogs (under about 3 years of history): often around 4x to 6x, because longevity is unproven.
- Mid-life catalogs (around 3 to 10 years): commonly in the 5x to 10x range for smaller deals.
- Mature, stable catalogs (10+ years): can reach 10x and beyond, and institutional deals for iconic catalogs have been reported in the mid to high teens.
These ranges are indicative, not a quote. Two catalogs with the same income can get very different offers.
Step 3: Check it with a DCF model
Serious buyers also build a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. They forecast income year by year, apply an expected decay rate (how quickly income falls as songs age), add growth assumptions for streaming, and then discount each future year back to today at a rate that reflects risk and interest rates.
When interest rates rise, the discount rate rises and valuations fall, which is a big reason multiples cooled after the 2021 peak.
What pushes the value up
- Age and stability. Songs that have been earning steadily for 10 or 20 years are likely to keep doing so. Buyers look at "dollar age": how old the songs are that actually make the money.
- Low decay. Flat or growing income is worth far more than income that drops sharply each year.
- Diversified income. A mix of streaming, performance, sync and international income is less risky than dependence on one platform or one song.
- Streaming share. Catalogs earning mostly from streaming are valued well because the income is transparent and recurring.
- Clean rights. Clear ownership, signed split sheets, correct registrations and good metadata.
- Sync potential. Recognizable songs that fit film, TV and advertising.
What pulls it down
- Income concentrated in one hit song or one territory.
- A negative trend, for example income falling more than about 5% a year over three years.
- Missing contracts, disputed splits or unregistered works.
- Short remaining rights, such as reversion clauses or limited license terms.
Size and competition matter
Smaller catalogs can attract strong multiples because more buyers can afford them, and more bidders push the price up. That is why running a competitive process with several qualified buyers usually beats accepting the first unsolicited offer.
Key takeaways
- Value = expected future net income × a multiple, cross-checked with a DCF.
- Normalized, stable, diversified income gets the best multiples.
- Interest rates affect prices across the whole market.
- Preparation and competition can change the final price as much as the numbers themselves.
Curious where your catalog would land? Read What Buyers Look For in a Catalog or book a confidential call for a free indicative range.